Election Discussion

These are all just campaign promises - but these promises are still a chance to tell Canadian that options that are open to them. And in that realm Trudeau is consistently to the left of Muclair....  On big topics like deficits and military spending Trudeau is actually taking stands I admire.  If I had to rank the parties on their platforms in terms of 'leftist' politics it would be: Green, Liberals, NDP, Conservatives.

We might have to face the fact that NDP's has been deeply moving to the 'center' in order to win electorally, but this might mean that they have neutered themselves into pointlessness, at worst they become like the Labour Party under Tony Blair. I would still cheer a NDP win because it would represent the culmination of generations of working class and socialist struggle - I just don't know if the NDP represents either of those factions anymore.

I unfortunately have the same feeling about the NDP right now. It is kind of sad seeing them reject their roots but as you said I would also cheer an NDP win. It shocked me the first time I debated in my mind if the Liberals were more left than the NDP. It really hit me how far the NDP had moved to the center.

So I was a bit confused as to what creates a minority government and what a coalition government is so I decided to see if I could figure it out. It seems fairly straightforward. The party with the most seats (if not a majority) tries to command confidence of the house. If they gain the confidence of the house they rule as a minority government but opposition can bring down the parliament in a vote of no confidence.

A coalition government which has happened only a few times in Canadian history is created when two or more parties agree to cooperate and form a majority of the seats.

With the upcoming election it looks like there will not be a majority of seats won by any one party which will lead us into the above scenarios.

Example: If the conservatives win they will have to gain confidence of the house in order to stay in power. If they don't gain confidence the governor general will ask if the other parties wish to form parliament (a coalition). If they don't agree to then we have another election.

I guess we will have to wait and see how all of this plays out. The conservative parliament could stay in power if they gain enough support from a party to have a majority confidence in the house. I suspect in this case that the government would be unstable and not last long. I don't see another party forming a coalition with the conservatives this election. An NDP / Liberal coalition is possible. Both parties and leaders become less powerful as it requires constant cooperation to keep it from collapsing. I think a NDP or Liberal minority government is very likely. It will be unstable and may not last 4 years but the Liberals and NDP would prop each other up for a period of time. What bills get passed or revoked in that time is anyone guess.

What does "gain the confidence of the house" mean? The losing parties vote that your victory is OK despite not having a majority?

The following is from hilltimes.com - a Canadian political insiders website that has no bias I can easily see...

The Trudeau Liberals are doing to Thomas Mulcair what the Wynne Liberals in Ontario did to Andrea Horwath. The Liberals are gaining ground among people who share left and centre-left values.

The Liberals have gained seven points among the Core Left, 11 points among Left Liberals and seven points among Business Liberals. This makes a lot of sense when you think about what the Liberals have been saying on issues like deficit, stimulus and immediate increases in social programs.

The NDP have not gained significantly with any group. What is most striking is the NDP drop from 59 per cent among the Core Left to 41 per cent. The grumblings that have made it into the media are being matched by the departing votes of a value cluster that should be the anchor of the NDP’s winning coalition.

It is particularly striking to see the large, uncommitted vote in Quebec where 22 per cent are undecided and 11 per cent say they “would not vote” or “none of the above” in our telephone poll. Given the NDP front runners have the support of only 23 out of every 100 Quebec voters, there is a huge potential for dramatic change in Quebec.

http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/2015/09/25/have-the-ndp-missed-the-greatest-electoral-opportunity-in-their-history/43515

This is getting dicey. The NDP using an ex-Liberal guy to head their party as they keep moving to the center might back-fire. It was Quebec that made them last election and it might break them this time. I think brushing up on minority Parliament rules is good idea.

So a little more reading has revealed that regardless of who wins the most seats (I think unless a majority) the prime minister of the previous parliament (Harper) has the option to go to the house to try and gain confidence (support). So in theory and it has happened once in Canadian history where the previous government although not winning the most seats remained in power by gaining support of the house. So regardless of who gets what seats the conservatives will get first shot at gaining support. I don't think they are going to have support. The Liberals have in the past thrown their support behind the conservatives but I don't think that will happen this election. Trudeau has said this in July "There’s no question I’ve spent my political career disagreeing with Stephen Harper on fundamental levels —fighting against his vision of a smaller, meaner Canada. I would never consider working with him, working for him, or forming any sort of coalition". In any event where the conservatives are looking for support to remain in power, hopefully Trudeau's words were true.

I think if either the Liberals or NDP win we are going to have a minority government. If the conservatives win there is a possibility of a coalition government, unless one or both of the parties decide to give support to the conservative minority. I think if we have a minority government it won't last long. A year probably before it gets taken down with a no confidence vote. It will mostly be a lot of political positioning to get ready for the inevitable fall of government so that "X" party can potentially win a majority. In the past a Liberal minority supported by NDP government has brought in some important victories like universal healthcare and CPP.

I don't know where this election is going but I think and hope we will see the end of a decade of conservative rule...I only wish that was guaranteed. It is very unlikely, although not impossible for the conservatives to win a majority. Most likely we will be seeing some cooperation between the Liberals and NDP for a time, although potentially brief.

If the conservatives don't stay in power it has been said that Harper will likely resign. So I think we will be seeing the end of Harper's reign, however, even if the conservatives lose they still have the chance to win confidence of the house and they can take a while doing that. I think they are allowed to put it off until late January if they so choose. Again, hopefully that won't be the case.

Hmmmm.... The Governor-General is a 74-year old from Sudbury!

He was head of McGill and appointed by Harper in 2010. Some parts of his background is sketchy:

In 2007, Johnston was appointed by on the advice of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, as an independent adviser and charged with drafting for the Cabinet the terms of reference for the public inquiry into the Airbus affair.

This appointment itself, however, was criticized by the independent citizens' group Democracy Watch as a conflict of interest, given that Johnston had once reported directly to Mulroney during the latter's time as prime minister. Johnston completed his report on but did not include as a subject the awarding of the Airbus contract, on the basis that this aspect had already been investigated by the RCMP - prompting criticism from opposition Members of Parliament and accusations that Johnston had acted as the Prime Minister's man.

This intensified after it was later revealed that Mulroney had accepted $300,000 in cash from Karlheinz Schreiber, but the commission could not examine any possible link between that payment and Airbus due to the narrow scope of the commission's mandate....

One of the scary items is that Andrew Coyne supports him. Coyne is a neo-con editor who has made sure the National Post and Maclean also preach the neo-con gospel.

It's kind of a dog and pony show regarding the race and the focus on particular topics which pander to the masses.  It is interesting to see how the message of each party/leader has been consistently expressed in the media with little in the way of tough questions.

I must admit, it certainly does show how much work the libs have been putting into polishing up Justin.

Also, I only caught the 1st debate in which I thought Elizabeth May actually came out on top.  Her exclusion from the remainder (besides the french debate) is kind of sad. Shows that despite the Greens making strides and having a full board of candidates with a solid platform, the majority of the populace still considers them to be "fringe".

However, it can't be worse than the shit show down south where Trump actually has a significant following.  That to me is a sad testament to the dumbing down of the population by this clown pandering to the knee jerkers, prejudiced and close minded nature of tens of millions of US citizens.  The only solid candidate i've seen so far is actually Bernie Sanders.  He's really resonating and has been packing in the crowds.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW4EM_U8f6sXf1IFsTU_DRQ

Elizabeth May was the only person in the House of Commons to oppose the disastrous Libyan intervention so she will always have my respect. Steph heard her on CBC and said she had the best platform she has had heard.

In Europeans countries like Germany, the Greens have been a serious political party for decades - but North America is mired in choosing between same two ancient parties that existed since the start of the countries. Democracy is lip-service if there is no choice and will degenerate into a circus where actors like Reagan, Schwarzenegger and Trump are the top 'candidates' and whatever topic dominates Facebook is the key campaign issue.

I will likely vote NDP because they are the best chance of keeping the Cons out locally - but it will be without enthusiasm...

Hobb wrote: I will likely vote NDP because they are the best chance of keeping the Cons out locally - but it will be without enthusiasm...

I will also vote with a bitter taste in my mouth for the liberal candidate, as they may have a bit more of a chance to unseat the PC who took Flaherty's old riding in the by-election 10 months ago. Shame that it almost feels like a dirty or tarnished vote when having to vote strategically rather than for your candidate of choice.

In doing media ethics I found a few websites I return to during any election so I'm posting them here:

Election Almanac

Pundit's Guide

Election Atlas

The Hill Times (some paywalls)

308.com

Nanos Polling

Election Predictions (has nice breakdown of individual regions)

If I get a free day here, I may try to collate them... but time is running out.

These #s from Pundit's Guide are scaring me -

Core Conservative seats – 70 (42 core and 28 strongly leaning)
Core NDP seats – 63 (12 core, 3 on incumbent strength, 48 strongly leaning)
Core Liberal seats – 18

Conservative-Liberal contests – 49 (46 held by the Conservatives, 3 by the Liberals)
Conservative-NDP contests – 44 (32 held by the Conservatives, 12 by the NDP)
NDP-Liberal contests – 44
Three-way contests – 45 (36 held by the Conservatives, 5 by the NDP, and 4 by the Liberals)
[+5 other riding with Greens and BQ]

This is worrisome because the Conservatives have the most 'core' seats and the most incumbents - and everything else is up in the air.  
So if the NDP lose too much momentum, or their Quebec core collapses (maybe the same thing) the Cons could get a near majority.

The Cons have 70 core seats and 138 ridings they could win (they also have the incumbents in most of these). If they win 1/2 of those 138, than that gives them 159, if they win 3/4 of those contests they end up with 174.

The magic # for majority is 170

Last election the Cons got 166 and that was enough...

Yeah - we have to pray for the NDP to keep stable and the Libs to take a chunk of 30 seats out of the Cons' hide.
Then....

Hill Times wrote: If the Conservatives win a minority government on Oct. 19 and the opposition parties decide to defeat the government on the Throne Speech, Governor General David Johnston “would not call an election because the Throne Speech is so early in the session that somebody else has the right to try to prove they enjoy the confidence of the House,” said Prof. Ned Franks, a professor emeritus of political science at Queen’s University, in an interview with The Hill Times.

Prof. Franks said that regardless of the election outcome, Prime Minister Stephen Harper  (Calgary Heritage, Alta.) would have the first right to form government. But if he fails to win the confidence of the House, Mr. Johnston, a former professor of securities regulation, information technology and corporate law would invite the other parties to seek the confidence of the House before agreeing to call another election.

University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman told The Hill Times that he does not expect another federal election for at least 18 months, because Canadians would react negatively against any political party that tried to trigger one. He also pointed out that after a lengthy election campaign, most political parties will not have enough money to run another one.

Based on the publicly available fundraising numbers for the national parties, only the Conservatives appear to have enough money in the bank to spend to the maximum limit without borrowing money from financial institutions.  After the campaign, political parties receive 50 per cent of their money back and individual candidates get 60 per cent from Elections Canada. This means only the Conservatives would likely have adequate funding to run another 37-day campaign right after the Oct. 19 election.

In 2011 it was: Cons 166 |  NDP 103 | Lib 34  |  
We just need to avoid a situation where it's Cons 151 | NDP 74 | Libs 74 (more or less)

One more important fact - there has been an electoral changes since 2011 adding 30 news seats (for a new total of 338, hence 170 for a majority).  The new divisions were done by "independent electoral commissions in each province" but even if fair the new ridings are mostly in Tory territory.

Most of those new seats are in rapidly growing urban and suburban areas in BC, Alberta and the Greater Toronto Area - suburban populations boom are more likely to vote for the Conservatives.

ipolitics.ca wrote:When votes from the last election are transposed onto the newly drawn electoral districts, Harper’s Tories pick up an extra 22 seats, compared to the NDP and the Liberals adding just six and two respectively.

If the 2011 election had happened under the new electoral map, the Conservatives would have 188 seats, compared with 109 for the NDP and 36 for the Liberals.

Those new riding have no incumbent so it is unclear how they will vote, but inertia and polling points towards Conservative. Last election people were talking about a Harper defeat but when I crunched the basic number it said otherwise - it seems similar this time.

I think the Cons' media strategy is to lull voters into not realizing how close they are to victory to keep voting numbers down. Threat of a Con victory might scare people into action. If it follows the pattern of 2011, in the final weeks the Cons will press hard on wedge issues - especially 'War of Terror'-related ones like immigration - and on the days right before the election an 'anonymous' smear will given to the media against either Trudeau or Mulclair. Later the smear will prove unfounded.

Let's get deeply cynical and serious, combine everyone's posts, and imagine how this all plays out:

1) Conservatives win a decent minority on the strength of the most core seats, incumbents, media smears and new boundaries. The NDP and Libs split the anti-Harper vote.

2) Thus Harper remains PM until he can be toppled by a non-confidence vote at the first parliamentary meeting: the post-election Throne Speech.

3) Canada's Constitution only requires Parliament to meet once a year so Harper can delay this as long as he wants.

                                                 Then....

4a) If the minority is large enough, Harper bribes as many Libs and NDP to cross the floor join him and he keeps power.

OR

4b) More likely, Harper announces he will resign but remain prime minister until a Conservative leadership contest occurs. Everyone who hates Harper is slightly cheered by this.

5) Early 2016, a new Conservative leader is chosen by the membership and becomes the new PM. The Conservative base is re-energized by having someone without Harper's baggage.

                                                 Then....

6a) The NDP and Libs accept this new leader because they aren't Harper - and the Cons remain in power with a minority.

OR

6b) The new Conservative PM asks Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call an election so the can seek a mandate because the NDP and Liberals won't give them a confidence vote.

OR

6c) The Governor General give the NDP & Liberals a chance to form some sort of coalition government!
                                                 
                                                        Then....

7) If 6b or 6c, only the Con's have the $$$ for another quick election. ("Only the Conservatives appear to have enough money in the bank to spend to the maximum limit without borrowing money from financial institutions."). They may want another election as soon possible - but only if without awakening public resentment. Another election with in a year or two might be their plan as it bleeds the others dry, and the inescapable resentment of a third election would likely mean that whoever won the next one would be safe for a few years.

Most of these scenarios point to:
1) Even if he resigns, Harper will be around for a while
2) With a strong minority the Conservatives will try every parliamentary trick to stay in power (like proroguing)
3) Conservatives have the $$$ for another election, the NDP & Libs don't  
4) Any coalition won't even have a chance to form for a few months
5) Oct 19th is the start of a long political battle, not the end of an era of evil

An outcome that ends with a clear Conservative defeat of the 19th should be greeted with screams of joy, laughter and tears - because a minor miracle will have occurred. There are enough unknowns in this election that such a miracle is possible, but as Shawn said, it's sad that the best miracle we can hope for is the end of Harper - not the victory of a party that represents us.

Sources:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/09/29/Tories-Path-to-Power/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-will-benefit-big-from-2015s-new-electoral-map-elections-canada-data-shows/article16630731/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-ridings-redistribution-1.3227653

Luckily out here in Atlantic Canada the conservatives have virtually no hope of gaining many seat with the exception of New Brunswick.  St. John's is divided into two seats which are: St. John's East and St. John's South - Mount Pearl.  St. John's East is assured to go to the NDP candidate Jack Harris (who by most accounts is a stand up guy).  St. John's South - Mount Pearl (my voting district) is extremely close between the NDP incumbent Ryan Cleary and the Liberals celebrity candidate Seamus O'Regan. Seamus was the co-host of Canada AM.  I haven't heard much from Seamus since the campaign started but his family is well known in NL and his father was a supreme court judge.  He also was the target of a Conservative attack ad.  We also have a Green candidate running and like has been mentioned in previous posts, the Greens have the best platform.  Elizabeth May is the only one who presents a reasonable foreign policy.  And we also have a Communist candidate running, who Linda and I both met during a teach in about the refugee crisis.  
Anyways back to my main point, the conservatives have no voice federally in Newfoundland and in most of Atlantic Canada.  Newfoundland will have zero conservative seats, Nova Scotia may have one, P.E.I will have zero, however, New Bruswick will bring in a few seats.  

So if the Conservatives win a majority, what country shall we move to?

All the cynical and serious points referenced are frighteningly plausible. There seems to be a push to vote strategically, but how informed is the average voter to exercise their due diligence in their respective riding's? Is this strategy enough to ensure either the liberals or NDP is first past the post? Frightening to consider the Cons retaining power to continue along with their mandate.

Here the break-down for Newfoundland: http://electionprediction.org/2015_fed/p_10nl.php
As Reb said no Conservatives in sight

Here the break-down for Ontario: http://electionprediction.org/2015_fed/p_35on.php
Sudbury should go NDP, looks like Whitby will remain Conservative, North Bay may go Liberal

Here the 2011 voting map:

Here's electionprediction.org's guesses:

Con - 98
NDP - 86
Lib -  70
Too Close - 85

For the 170 majority the Cons would have to win 72 of those 85 close calls, which seems unlikely, (oh god like it be unlikely).

A 3-way split of the close contests would give Cons 126, NDP 114, Lib 98.

Electionalmanac.com's collects a variety of current seat projections, here are the ranges:

Con - 126 to 132
NDP - 99 to 110
Lib -  90 to 110

Even with 30 new ridings these predictions show the Conservatives losing 30 seats. This would begin the process were the Conservative try to delay, re-tool (possibly tossing Harper), and force another election - while the NDP-Lib hammer out a coalition. It makes no difference whether it's the NDP or Libs who gain, it just has to be the Con's who lose seats.

The numbers Steph put up from punditguide are scary, and last election the Cons got more votes than anyone predicted, so I think the Cons numbers might be higher than predicted. If they can somehow pull in 150 - 160 seats they might not even drop Harper.....

The Communist Party has 28 candidates across Canada - including Sudbury and St.John's East. The head of the party was in Sudbury on Monday.

“The global economic crisis and climate crisis is about capitalism itself,” the Communist candidate said. “More and more people recognizing that working people are facing a systemic problem, looking for alternatives to war and austerity, and finding our party which fights for socialism,” Miguel said.
“We’re a small party with big ideas,” he said.

The party’s 21 point platform calls to:

* Create quality, full-time jobs, raising wages as well as benefits;
* Restore Canada’s manufacturing industry and build a green Canadian car;
* Establish independent foreign policy based on peace, disarmament and environmental sustainability;
* Protect and expand public services stopping privatization of healthcare and for Medicare to include eye and dental as well as a public pharmaceutical plan;
* Full equality of women and stopping racism and homophobia;
* Reversing the attack on civil, labour and democratic rights including scrapping CSIS;
* Full equality of Aboriginal peoples and Quebec including a new constitution with a new, equal and voluntary partnership;

http://www.northernlife.ca/news/elections/federal/2015/sudbury/rowley/28-rowley-communist-party-leader-sudbury.aspx

I've been thinking it over, I rather vote Green or Communist than 'strategically'. Nickle beast has enough Cons signs up around here to make me nervous, but I don't think they have any real chance, and fear cannot be my only criteria.

Quebec federal voters swung the spotlight onto the NDP, provincially Alberta voters did likewise - and the NDP big-wigs have wasted their time in the spotlight to cast themselves as the 'new Liberals' instead of challenging the political discourse. Now, barring a small miracle we are facing an election where the only hope is the Cons don't win big enough so they have to at least drop Harper.

At one point not even all that long ago I had hope that there would be actual change in the political realm Canada has entered but unfortunately that hope is pretty much gone. I watched the Monk Debates and it was grotesque. Basically Putin is the biggest threat to the world, we need to rebuild our relationship with the USA, and the other leaders are incompetent. Granted the debate only had the the Cons, Libs and NDP, but that was enough to painted a pretty bleak picture of the government ahead. It now feels like the best we can do is hope for limited damaged.

Oh ya I almost forgot to mention that the TTP was signed today. From a quick look it hurts autoworkers, farmers, state run enterprises, and patients (i.e. the general public). It benefits Multinational companies, Pharmaceuticals, and any large private business.

I am sure that is just the tip of the iceberg and the damage will go deep to the core and dismantle most things many of us consider vital for a properly functioning society. Later I am going to try and look up how this will impact our health care. I am sure it is in there somewhere as our healthcare is one juicy ripe fruit ready to be picked by privatization.

Here was electionprediction.org's guesses on OCT 1:

Con - 98
NDP - 86
Lib - 70
Too Close - 85

Here was electionprediction.org's guesses today:

Con - 96
NDP - 67
Lib - 91
Too Close - 82

This is what I was worried about - the rise of the Liberals means little because most of their seats are coming from the NDP. Dividing the 'Too Close' contests by 3 gives Lib (118), NDP (94), Cons (123). Which should be close enough to keep a high Conservative victory (145+ seats) from occurring.

Electionalmanac.com's new seat projections are interesting:

Con - 117 to 131
NDP - 67 to 80
Lib - 128 to 140

If the Liberals can flat-out beat the Cons in the # of seats, this would be a nice stinging blow to Harper and might fast-track his exit.

The pollsters under-predicted the Conservatives last time, and this weekend (Friday before Monday election to control the weekend news-cycle) is when the smears are launched - so use caution.

cbc.ca wrote:The general feeling is if the Conservatives were heavily outnumbered, Harper would likely give up power. If, however, he is just a few seats short of a majority, he would likely hold on. That's the view of Andrew MacDougall, who used to work as Harper's director of communications. "Size does matter, and the way I look at this, it's a bit like political pornography: you'll know it when you see it and you'll know the margin when you see it."

Harper suggested any coalition of parties that lost an election would be illegitimate. "Losers don't get to form coalitions. Winners are the one that form governments," he said.

[....]

"The intensity of desire for change amongst those in their portion of the electorate is really, really high, and frankly I would expect that you would find people with pitchforks and torches on Parliament Hill if those parties say, 'Well we're going to look the other way and let Mr. Harper rule," said EKOS pollster Frank Graves.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-minority-government-harper-conservatives-what-happens-1.3270660

This is what I expected. If the Cons have the most seats and they stay above 145 expect a fight to topple Harper. He'll put off holding Parliament as long as possible and try to crack open any cracks in the Constitution or other Parties. There may need to be mass public protests -"pitchforks and torches on Parliament Hill" - to force his departure...

Last election the numbers were Con (166) NDP (103) Lib (34). There are now 30 more seats in play and 170 is the magic number.

A nice 3-way split would give the 3 parties about 110 seats each - this would be enough to give the momentum to the Libs and NDPs - but it also means the Libs have to gain 70 seats while the NDP stay stable... It's going to be close...