Election Discussion

Democracy Watch wrote:Governor General Johnston, unelected and unaccountable, has the very important powers to decide after the election:

   which party will be given the opportunity to try to govern first;
   when Parliament will open and can be shut down;
   whether MPs support the government or whether a vote of non-confidence has occurred, and;
   whether and when another election will happen.

In England, Australia and New Zealand, political party leaders and MPs agreed years ago to clear, public rules so what happens after an election is fair for all the parties, and for voters. Most countries in the world also have clear, public post-election rules.

Governor General Johnston — who was chosen by Prime Minister Harper and has in the past protected PM Harper and protected the Conservatives – has no clear, public rules that he has to follow when he makes these key post-election decisions. Instead, Canada has unwritten constitutional “conventions” that can easily be abused.

Hobb wrote:Let's get deeply cynical and serious, combine everyone's posts, and imagine how this all plays out:

1) Conservatives win a decent minority on the strength of the most core seats, incumbents, media smears and new boundaries. The NDP and Libs split the anti-Harper vote.

2) Thus Harper remains PM until he can be toppled by a non-confidence vote at the first parliamentary meeting: the post-election Throne Speech.

3) Canada's Constitution only requires Parliament to meet once a year so Harper can delay this as long as he wants.

                                                 Then....

4a) If the minority is large enough, Harper bribes as many Libs and NDP to cross the floor join him and he keeps power.

OR

4b) More likely, Harper announces he will resign but remain prime minister until a Conservative leadership contest occurs. Everyone who hates Harper is slightly cheered by this.

5) Early 2016, a new Conservative leader is chosen by the membership and becomes the new PM. The Conservative base is re-energized by having someone without Harper's baggage.

                                                 Then....

6a) The NDP and Libs accept this new leader because they aren't Harper - and the Cons remain in power with a minority.

OR

6b) The new Conservative PM asks Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call an election so the can seek a mandate because the NDP and Liberals won't give them a confidence vote.

OR

6c) The Governor General give the NDP & Liberals a chance to form some sort of coalition government!
                                                 
                                                        Then....

7) If 6b or 6c, only the Con's have the $$$ for another quick election. ("Only the Conservatives appear to have enough money in the bank to spend to the maximum limit without borrowing money from financial institutions."). They may want another election as soon possible - but only if without awakening public resentment. Another election with in a year or two might be their plan as it bleeds the others dry, and the inescapable resentment of a third election would likely mean that whoever won the next one would be safe for a few years.

Most of these scenarios point to:
1) Even if he resigns, Harper will be around for a while
2) With a strong minority the Conservatives will try every parliamentary trick to stay in power (like proroguing)
3) Conservatives have the $$$ for another election, the NDP & Libs don't  
4) Any coalition won't even have a chance to form for a few months
5) Oct 19th is the start of a long political battle, not the end of an era of evil

An outcome that ends with a clear Conservative defeat of the 19th should be greeted with screams of joy, laughter and tears - because a minor miracle will have occurred. There are enough unknowns in this election that such a miracle is possible, but as Shawn said, it's sad that the best miracle we can hope for is the end of Harper - not the victory of a party that represents us.

Sources:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/09/29/Tories-Path-to-Power/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-will-benefit-big-from-2015s-new-electoral-map-elections-canada-data-shows/article16630731/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-ridings-redistribution-1.3227653

Hobb wrote:These are all just campaign promises - but these promises are still a chance to tell Canadian that options that are open to them. And in that realm Trudeau is consistently to the left of Muclair....  On big topics like deficits and military spending Trudeau is actually taking stands I admire.

Hobb wrote:Now, barring a small miracle we are facing an election where the only hope is the Cons don't win big enough so they have to at least drop Harper.